Long Term Perspective

Import growth accelerated between 2002 and 2004 even though the sharp drop in the foreign exchange value of the dollar increased the cost of imports. As the trade weighted dollar picked up steam, import demand moderated during most of 2005 through 2007 and turned negative late in 2008 and in 2009. Imports turned up on a month-ago basis in mid-2009, lessening the year-ago decline through the final quarter of 2009.  Year-ago imports turned positive in 2010 and remained so in 2011. However, imports turned negative in mid-2012 as businesses lowered expectations about demand for consumer goods, commodities, and business equipment.

Short Term Perspective

After a sharp contraction during the worst of the past recession, imports generally posted healthy gains since mid-2009. However, recently merchandise imports have been soft but rebounded 2.1 percent in September after a 0.5 percent decline in August and 0.9 percent decrease in July. For September, merchandise imports were up 1.5 percent year-on-year, compared to up 0.4 percent in August.